China's housing market, continue to boil or to collapse

 Purely Zatan: China housing market, continue to boil or to crash?
Ai Wei
non-independent capacity to those who do not enter. The other, non-recommended long-term investors do not look at my blog, here you need not get any information. This is purely a no vision and little real ability ignorance of retail insights for discussion purposes only.
related posts :2010-03-14 | real estate bubble burst this year, the probability of how many?
【Note】
Ai Wei original was written in October 2007 1, which is the highest point on the eve of the stock market) the original title: crash? investment strategy to determine any change, because the answer to this question does not change the intrinsic value of any dimension.
[a section of the book Introduction]
book is about the 20th century, the U.S. stock market bull market in the 60s classic for today's investors about the whole trend of the 20th century, stock prices of 60 years to become a millionaire many characters, events, market factors and the alarming trend of the times the story straight mm inevitable crash of 1970.
(Ai Wei Note: This is Warren Buffett's investment career in a fully wound up the only age (the time should be around in 1968), even after the U.S. stock market has experienced several large-scale bubble period, Buffett has not been short selling stock.)
[book original fragment]
week after week, month after month, two periods (Ai Wei Note: refers to the crash of 1929 that comparison) the new emerging .1971 similarities, the Nixon constantly denied by the government plans to provide direct job opportunities, hh hh omitted when the dollar lost in 1933 and the gold exchange capacity of the old things in the August 1971 return,Bailey UGG boots, the distance 1970 crash, only one year. (Ai Wei Note: After reading the speech earlier Soros, it seems to describe the same thing The collapse of the capital market from irrational exuberance, this time triggered by the subprime problems, more components may come from the excesses of financial derivative products innovation and uncontrollable expansion of the scale factor.)
history, from an economic point of view, seemed to be repeating the nightmare from which the United States just can not wake up. (Ai Wei Note: does not seem to wake up from an economic fitness. I remember two years ago, the Hong Kong market also 10 007 thousand points of HSI feel fear , hovering in the shadow of the psychological after a long time, in 2007 completely out of The detention, and soared 30 000 points.)
[book original fragment]
as personal crisis after shares have remorse, reform of the public after the crisis there. hh 1971 mid-summer, about 1.8 bankrupt economy companies million customers are still waiting for their stock and cash. By 1972, almost everyone was preserved. (Ai Wei Note: December 1970, established by the securities industry from the Securities Investor Protection Corporation Sipic, to protect the bankruptcy the economy's customers to reduce their losses, the limit is $ 50,000 per person. In fact, China's securities industry after 2002 there have been similar problems, I think many people should still fresh. do not know if the next round bubble burst, CITIC Securities if such a class of problems the company, the face of the scale of such a huge loss of securities assets, whether ordinary people can get a security guard? like the Japanese banking bankrupt, to 1,000 million per depositor yen limit withdrawals, of course, is the preferred practice of the poor preservation. to China will be like? will be protected to protect the poor do the rich or the first?)
[in the book the original fragment]
Thus, in a wonderful contradiction in American children every day type of simple concrete canyons of Wall Street appears at the bottom for two hours. At the same time, in the height of the office, people trapped in adult transactions, the signs show that the catastrophe is approaching, and the disaster is precisely the reason them out of the concrete and simple world, out of joy and curiosity. (Ai Wei Note: Fortunately, one of my biggest hobbies is still watching cartoons, from early July Dragon Ball, YuYu Hakusho to NARUTO, Bleach, One Piece hh)
Love is the only power it has always mm may cause a lack of love to destroy a person.
peace is the ultimate result of love.
Wall Street, it is the voice of the hand to follow the money moving.
you may be able to find the devil Chase Manhattan.
(Ai Wei Note: The investment is not the whole of life, investments, from interest, it can make life changes even better, but he is not the whole of life, happy life is what we are looking for, why people always forget this, perhaps because in Manhattan to find the devil.)
[in the book the original fragment]
zenith The Go-Go: The disadvantage is that young people, intolerance, the young Wall Street has always been respected rule makes the quality mm exclusion of age and experience. would be impossible for any social change to be more deeply shaken the traditional Wall Street. Then, the values of sudden reversal of how it happened, this was hh
joint ventures, and prostitutes as morally right from the start to a bad reputation, and therefore requires a euphemistic term. In their most prosperous years (1966 ~ 1969), some say they represent a form of future-oriented business, the business enterprise to abandon the traditional stereotypes hh
Waterloo on the eve of the carnival: the stock market if there is one thing to determine the history of unwavering, then IPO fever is always the risk that the final stage of prosperity hh
1970 crash years: a half year loss of 3,000 million to 3,000 million share investors head, this is the era of boiling lead to consequences hh
( Ai Wei Note: Let us work together to review this piece of history, perhaps all this is a repeat of our market hh)
[in the book the original fragment]
customers or small investors,UGGs, the Wall Street of ; so what? hh First of all, almost no doubt that they are 60 years of the 20th century the stock market losers. unfortunately happened in July 1970 when the stock market stumbled and the New York Stock Exchange announced the latest findings of the national investors . we have seen, the total number of investors reached 3,100 million, every 4 adults have a stock investors. This means that since 1965 the number of shareholders increased by 53.3% hh, therefore, there is no doubt that nearly 1,100 people is close to 1,000 points in the Dow Jones index in 1965 and about 650 points the first time between 1970 and .1969 in the stock market stock market crash of 1970, a total of 3,000 million people in the book hh loss of at least 1,000 capitalism has million American investors, all investors or the United States, 1 / 3 poorer than the original, but poor for at least several billion dollars. (Ai Wei Note: In fact, even the Americans to that deep reflection of a bubble in 1960 , A shares may also experience than the bubble is now much smaller. I did not notice the new shares into the stock market in 2007 the number of government of the people. In fact, no matter how the process, even if the stock market rose to a million points, and ultimately the majority of investors may still escape unharmed. In the A share market, the proportion of poor more likely to be much higher.)
heyday of the Go-Go: The disadvantage is that young people, intolerance, the young Wall Street has always been respected rule makes the quality of mm the exclusion of age and experience. would be impossible for any social change to be more deeply shaken the traditional Wall Street. Then, a sudden reversal of values is how it happened, this is hh (Ai Wei Note: In fact, regardless of the bubble size, each the formation of a bubble seems to have the same case m is said: You have become obsolete, be guided by intuition rather than an individual-oriented market funds, re-empowerment of the individual to power and were outside. And this point has been lost 30 years of Wall Street star era is about to come again. a new star will be the experience of their portfolio, they for the mutual fund investment decisions hh
That fall, the Wall Street repeated the remarks so that the Fund finally recommended to achieve rapid response to market, this is my personal limited resources can not be achieved hh (Ai Wei Note: how do you say? original intention had raised funds may be carried out by a professional investment in the current circumstances, it can be , all of these fund managers have become the wrong, when most hedge funds would decline about 70%. If the Chinese oil dropped back from 20 a few should have the value of 8 dollars or less, I do not know how the Fund will be a net value.)
[book original fragment]
Thus, in a wonderful contradiction in American children every day type of simple concrete canyons of Wall Street appears at the bottom for two hours. At the same time, in the height of the office, people trapped in adult transactions, there are indications that the coming disaster, and disaster precisely because they simply out of the concrete world, out of joy and curiosity. (Ai Wei Note: Fortunately, one of my biggest hobbies is to look at the animation is still film, from the early Dragon Ball, YuYu Hakusho to NARUTO, Bleach, One Piece hh)
Love is the only power it has always mm may cause a lack of love to destroy a person.
peace is love the ultimate result.
Wall Street, it's hand moving to follow the sound of money.
you may be able to find the devil Chase Manhattan.
(Ai Wei Note: The investment is not the whole of life, investment, from hobbies It makes life more beautiful, but he is not the whole of life, happy life is what we are looking for, why people always forget this, perhaps because in Manhattan to find the devil.)
[the original book fragment]
price-earnings ratio, it provides a benchmark for investors to measure the cost is not worth buying a stock. If the price-earnings ratio of 10 times, it is generally considered cost-effective, price-earnings ratio of 40 times, there may be considered too high .
However, the joint venture before, this level of experience is not enough. due to consider a range of merger, the combined company's earnings per share, largely lost in the blind trust of the primary investors scale features. a simple mathematical fact is that, at any time, when a price-earnings ratio price-earnings ratio of high and low acquired a company, will produce a magic effect. The new combined company's earnings per share in the first year, initiated by the acquired company to be higher than in the previous year's earnings per share, even though the two are not the company's business than before the increase. It is clear that earnings growth has produced in a visual illusion. and in accordance with the accounting 60s of the 20th century Methods hh (Ai Wei Note: A share market is currently in full swing for the overall market has the same effect, the key lies in two mutually held company to further expand its use of price-earnings ratio to value. the new accounting method, these visual illusions there are no small role in promoting, people seem to forget that only a recording of accounting, which itself does not change a value of the business, but is in a different way or the implicit or explicit description of the things the already exist and to.)
[in the book the original fragment]
1968 年, hh people began to believe that almost any 40 years of age who can instinctively than 40 people over the age of better understanding and forecasting of non-traditional fast-growing emerging growth companies. David tradition. L. Babson Company harshly sent a letter to its customers by Zhao Danyang.)
in the end work? unique intuition and the spirit of young people, as a security analysis tool, the majority of investors work? is not useful from the point of view the results of .1970, the majority of hot stocks will fall onto the horse, their most touted young gunman had left the securities industry will be, or abandoned by the securities industry. hh (Ai Wei Note: I do not know after 10 years, we now can see how many familiar figure.)

just a little Zatan watched the movie previous vampire films such as Dracula and Van Helsing a class of different, vibrant look more relaxed and enjoyable movie number.
them, but there are still noble vampire family, and they are responsible for law and the implementation of the vampire, it is interesting.
first exposure to vampires when I was more concerned about, since a person can be transformed into a vampire vampire, not that the future will be increasing the number of vampires and powerful it? but this also occurred in the new problem, as their food source of the human, does that mean less and less, leading to destruction of the ecological balance? Fortunately, however, they will make laws and enforcement, which I am a little relieved to the next.
there a doubt, I mentioned, the results were laughed at. I said, how the heroine so good luck, the first boyfriend is a vampire, a werewolf second, while the probability of the two multi-hit low ah? Oh, Then think about it, in fact, the probability of any one may run into are zero can not say whether the real? This is a problem.