(Original) late in 2010 and New Year message
analysis of recent market news to determine
2009 New Year's Day I wrote a paper entitled: then quickly into 2010! the habit of writing, more talkative, I recorded the date and conversation, and always subconsciously, not help the New Year's Day 2010, I was a junior when the wedding ceremony, actually inadvertently br> in such a manner and time for the elderly is cruel! he completely whether you are a slip of the tongue? or typo? he ruthlessly heads held high, walked indomitable pace! He will always be indomitable! will never stop, or repetition, hesitation on your own pace!
However, the law of the stock market is not the case: In accordance with the laws of the past, usually the first week of New Year and Spring Festival opened up greater than the probability. In particular, the last trading day of 2009 closed, State Council approved a tax on the size of the non-reduction programs: from 1 January 2010 onwards, the transfer of individuals from restricted shares of listed companies charge 20% of the personal income tax. The new regulations encourage investors holding long-term inhibition behavior of short-term cash to develop long-term holdings grow with the company's culture, investors care more about the fundamentals of listed companies is undoubtedly conducive to the healthy development of the market.
lingering shock of the stock market under a directional signal is given, the 2010 stock market opening is likely to be staged a good start. Those analysts who face! the first week of the New Year is an open green! average pressure has always been afraid of! even now does not change his mind!
coincidence. this Friday after the close of the State Council published the first time regulators margin and stock index futures news. this market reaction more positive. I am probably a bit to statistics: less than 80% of the agencies and analysts are on hold next week and the recent very optimistic about the market. even shouted
but I was not. Why?
we all know: The stock market has always been grass is always greener, please review the margin trading and stock index futures have been circulating the news of how long? has been market speculation how many times a? even now about to be confirmed, then fresh enthusiasm for speculation and how much? If it is
Secondly, the previous margin trading and stock index futures speculation the news has led to soaring broader market heavyweights, and promoted the index rise. At that time the market considered to be: margin trading and the introduction of stock index futures will lead the main force ridicule?! Therefore, I firmly believe that each stock index futures speculation and margin trading are the main message of the stock market pushed up shipping prices!
again: If someone said that this margin trading and stock index futures in the message is not main master, I see the whole of China, the world will not believe, because the message needs to link in too many close almost no insurable. So being the case, why is the main force in the upcoming not to precise timetable, the main can not Ji Houhou to go adjust the time, low-cost chips to the main hand will naturally! so those wishful to think that the market will have a Gaokaidizou phenomenon next week, the most optimistic, at least will not have much of the upward volatility.
I would like to long-term focus on this blog, friends say that my views on recent events: large cap, small board, the GEM sustained, accelerated, high, Kaohsiung win rate issuing and listing, the market has been disappointed that the government's suppressive policy of the real estate industry will also lead to real estate, banking sector's downturn. original size of the non-reduction tax benefit program is indeed a multi-market, but in the positive front, it can not lead the market upward, illustrating the market's upward momentum is not strong. And this week, real estate, cars and other mainstream turns to sell into the plate, but also led to the multi-attitude instability. and the central bank to control liquidity has begun to move on, on this point, please take a look at the central bank open market operations to understand. Conversely, concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand even more accelerated the outflow of funds, these gave the tape to adjust the pressure increased substantially. It is beyond doubt.
us look at the full year, pre-holiday period, the market trends for 2010 a more optimistic view. including myself, also for 2010 confidence in the trend. But the trend decline in the first week of the New Year, as well as introduction of margin trading and stock index futures markets in the future possibility; and the recent government saying one thing and do another comprehensive analysis of initiatives to determine, in the past market trends for optimism in 2010 is expected to still need to determine what the appropriate adjustment to do. I have a feeling faint: China's stock market volatility in 2001 would be more intense. on this point, more specific reason to say I can not say now how much, but I fought in this market, after all, a dozen years, both can be considered a hands-on experience, and theoretical foundation of caring people out, and went through so many life and death, repeated hh wind and rain should be said that this intuition or should have. I am in the 2009 New Year message: trend of the good, we should say is my investment career to be proud of, proud of one thing. Well, today the 2010 New Year's message late in the forecast, will not become new things. individual investors, and even the institution itself, Ye Hao past experience and lessons worth mentioning have to re-understand and summarize. Therefore, in the new year to maintain a relatively cautious attitude to keep a positive attitude to accept new things to meet this new challenge is the human right!
say that I am following the operation last year, concluded it: from the early 2009's 1821 points to 3100 points the end of 2009, the index rose more than 70%. But according to media count: 80% of the investors in 2009 income level of less than 70%. Unfortunately, in that 80% of the people also, including myself! Although I record the whole, than the higher income in 2008, more than twice; although I early 2009 New Year message:
2009 years, my income is not synchronized with the uplink with the index. In other words: do not beat the market! The main reason is too much emphasis on short-term judgments are too many bands of operation; and the operation is conservative positions has remained relatively low level. several times a year to travel short positions: 4 months, late to early May in Yunnan, Guizhou 20 days consecutive travel. Although the end of April to avoid a wave of early adjustment in May, but lost Middle bargain-hunting opportunity! and Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province in mid-June, Beidaihe in the sea, while avoiding the small adjustments that, but let a wave of running the main upward move in late rally! until near the end to find the opportunity to start! but has missed Jiancang the best time! August, went along Weihai Tourism hh.
When I put this I can do its capability to make money! and 2009 than in 2008, I do not know how many times do better! However, this is the market, this is fact! Mr. Market educate people all the time!
Although this is a Notes a late New Year message, but in the new year begins, I have full confidence in the emerging new things year, with a positive attitude and humility, learning to learn new things and new knowledge. to get more than 2009 on a better record! to make void, over the Dharma Realm omnipotent Shifangzhufo, the congregation of Bodhisattvas Kegon Phi sea me!
statements of a reference does not constitute investment advice of any
Shanxi Gu Li of view e-mail: lidaguan-2003@163.com exchange blog: Writing in late January 9, 2010
Attachment: New Year message for 2009: (original) to meet a confident smile, years! s
2008 �� 12 31, passed and, A-share market ushered in the last day of trading. this year line appears a foregone conclusion that Yang Yin package. s
2007 �� -2008 years, though Only a short period of one year effort, but to become a cycle of cattle to bear! become an investor's risk education to the case of unilateral giant fell completely smashed almost unilateral increases in 2006-2007 to get the so-called shareholders of the Almost all attempts of people trying to enter this market: participants, including the Government have no faith at all! but it has often been ridiculed or insulted. as if I block the people's The mystery of China's traditional cultural theory point of view, 2008, . I very much believe that the mysterious cultural theory though, also have the Book of Changes, superficial aspects of numerology, but after all not really into the halls of profound knowledge. As early as in early 2008 I saw a an expert for the 2008 operation of the national fate predictions, but I was quite far away from that and their own (national issues) and not too seriously. but afterwards it proved of this clash most relevant to our A-share market: As of 08.12.31 the end of 5261.56 points from last year, plunged to close at 1820.81 points .08 end of the year's decline during the year has reached 65.82%! annual decline in Shenzhen Component Index reached 64.06%. A shares This decline in major stock markets in the world ranking! undoubtedly become the world's worst investment market in 2008. s
and based on public data: in 2008 95% of the market participants are able to escape the bad luck of losing money . more than 70% of the investors losses of 65% or more. by account number, the average loss for each account up to 38 million and more. even the highest loss of an investment fund over 95%, directly facing liquidation. and about a year The fund will report on the ranking data, 2008 champion fund down about 37% loss! title like this, not to mention the other! s
2008 year, I have seen a post on the Internet, I feel curious to collection up. And now it seems that this has been forgotten of my post is really the classic to the extreme! please see the following text: s far more than money, may be summed up to the end of 2008 more than 80% loss! 2, the Year of the Rat does not buy as much as possible to buy yin yang, especially in the sun easily locked into the chase! s
3, Year of the Rat should pay more attention value of the investment, but just look at the basis of earnings per share as an investment is a serious mistake, growth more than anything else! s
4, Year of the Rat on the television, newspapers, recommended not to easily believe, not to stock analysts who believe! s
5, Year of the Rat profit target to be substantially reduced, 5 to 10 points out of a profit first, do band! s
6, 6124 points last year may be Year of the Rat can not go beyond the big top ! s
7, Year of the Rat Do not put all the family property to the stock market, especially borrowed money or the mortgage! s
8, Rat defensive investment in the first place, would rather miss, can not do wrong! s
9,06,07 a lot of the bull market years of super bull stock may go into the Year of the Rat as a downward spiral of the Great Bear Intermediate Unit! s
10, Year of the Rat stock can not be full-time, can only do sideline! s
you read this challenges in the new year will be more and more million. Although the central enterprises, led by
another aspect: the continuous stock market crash of 2008, making the Commission to slow down the pace of IPO. If I remember correctly, starting from September 2008, stopped issuing new shares. or even a lot of preparation issuance or placement of all had to cancel, or in the form of bonds to finance. The two securities firms this is over and therefore will not debut in 2008, A shares. the Communist Party is to establish the original intention of misappropriating the stock market. At this point Shang Deng Xiaoping's much smarter than mao! because they already know how to use the capital market, they have been reluctant to make even a penny to invest in the market, but only willing to transfer risk to the community and reap the profits! because The stock market is setting up a business can not lose! Therefore, as long as they realize that IPO has become a luxury, no money has been ring, they will do everything possible to the market, years, I think the opportunity is definitely greater than the risk. s
Also, the data have to win the rich body institutions out of funds data, so I began to see institutional funds from 2008.9.18 to continue to lighten up, and into the future. (please review my published data on to win the rich research article) I realized the risk to come. so I started gradually in 5500 a strategic point at the top to lighten up, until the full clearance before the Spring Festival of 2008, After loaded get out, since has been closed. until I published in the 2008-04-07 Sohu blog article, Sina, Phoenix, Netease, and a number of major media in the evening 08.4.8 reproduced, Please come to my blog and search for these sites the contents of the article.) published in the 08.4.14 my blog post again Quotes after the turning point of conjecture and the recent forecast of Guyu perfect summation triple time period, the market is likely to have an important inflection point between 08.4.19-4.23! The most important one in November 15, 2004 at the ancient capital of Luoyang in the Six Dynasties written after the publication in the derivative of the number last day of the day. The day before 22 April 2990 point index of 4.23 to Tandi rose! started a wave of relatively large in the 2008 rally! apply what they learn as did, so in that wave, I get the rebound a relatively satisfying results. s
4.30 May Day holiday in the last trading day before I get out again until the end of October 2008 was gradually admitted. During this time I can not do nothing, but do huge loss in the case of a real person into a The glory is definitely not some pseudo-scientific theorists behind closed doors to the market participants simply classified as to understand the body is only part of game, they too will be guilty of a very low-level mistake! especially the seemingly Let me know how the rich data and profits of the real risk of the composition. Therefore, the main costs of shit so-called barrier theory, the so-called do not throw, do not go sideways, down 30% at current prices, etc.) to do a thorough rejection! because the agency does not care about the main cost is look at trends! especially the fund managers did not take cost of seriously! s < br> The actual transaction data in the study, while the original K line theory and the tradition of the traditional indicators of transactions in real combat application, and their reasons have limited understanding of nature. I realize: the so-called main line, and so deceive saying only real game in a brutal market just under a representation! as long as you do not rely on short-term indicators to determine trends over the case, what would never the trend of the real you make the right judgments, or so-called ; theory really be a fundamental understanding! hh rich data is for me to win the technical analysis of the original a subversion, it made me understand the stock market in essence, therefore, I am very grateful to win the rich data! s
The rich data to win the institutional funds is almost extinct, I think it may win the rich data from the class of 2009 began on New Year's. Yes ah, big organizations can once again wantonly rampage next year, so why fight the past few days with the length of all individual investors do?! As December is almost the entire decline in the process of institutional positions (from position ratio is: the base throughout the 12 months decreased by 0.46% coupon positions, to 16.28%), therefore, from the beginning of next year some time in the New Year will be the public the main body silent accumulation process, and accompanied by the accumulation process, or will be badly as the shock, too, or will be all the way Yindie style whipsaw hh s
speaking from the time periods: New Year's Day 2009 spiral cycle is an important day, but the day is not opened, then the time period will be extended to the opening on the first day 2009.1.5; and 2009.1.5 or the lunar calendar, opened on the first day may be an important point. If nothing else, then, in accordance with the Today will be . T minus 168 million seats. legal by 1.636 billion. s
Tuesday 7.1443 12.30 billion net inflow of institutional funds. which 603 million net inflow of funds, but the position has strangely reduced to 16.24%. T prefix 033 million of net sales, Corporate net sales 1,271 million. s
calculation shows Wednesday 12.31 20.2657 million net inflow of institutional funds. fund net inflow of 1.732 billion. body positions increased to 16.28%. T prefix to buy 192 million net! Although the last trading day of falling bodies do more. s
three trading days this week, based vouchers to buy 2.278 billion net total, of which 2.272 billion fund to buy a net. corporate net sales 3.459 billion, T sold 009 million of net prefix. visible in the final three trading days, the Fund is the main force to do more. s
in the entire 12-month period, net-based vouchers to buy a total of 16.959 billion, of which 14.442 billion fund to buy a net. corporate net sales 22.203 billion, T prefix net sales 7.66 billion. s
ratio from the position is: In the entire 12-months basis fell by 0.46% coupon positions, to 16.28%, up 1.15% legal positions, to 31.54%, 0.68% down individual positions was 51.18%. It is noteworthy that in the legal position in December rose 1.15%. It shows again that size is not a scourge not. In a region with investment value, these industries will choose the capital into it! because the capital has always been profit-driven! we can see from the data: while in 2008 the last trading day in the index fell, but the Fund and the T-head is doing more! us think about the legal position throughout the 12 months rose by 1.15%. What does this mean? s < br> frustration and even despair most people in 2008 is over, beginning in 2009, today, I firmly believe that anything, but I believe that confident smile, the face of this attitude has been New Year New s
statements of a reference does not constitute investment advice of any s
view Shanxi Gu Lee, E-mail: lidaguan-2003@163.com written on New Year s
2009
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